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Historic El Niño: What This Winter Could Bring
NOAA's October 8 advisory is still the official word. A stronger event is likely. A specific winter is not guaranteed.
Primary sources
NOAA Climate Prediction Center · agency · published 2026-10-08
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Script
NOAA says El Niño is underway, and it is still getting stronger. On October 8 the Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory. The Niño-3.4 index stands at 2.1 degrees Celsius above average. Niño-3 is plus 3.0, and the coastal Niño-1+2 region is plus 3.9. Parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific are more than 4 degrees above average. Deeper water in the eastern Pacific is, in places, more than 10 degrees warmer than usual. A strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, with the chance staying above 83 percent. For October through December, the Center gives an 83 percent chance of a three-month value above plus 2.5 degrees, stronger than any El Niño since 1950. That raises the odds of typical impacts. It does not promise them. The next discussion is November 12.
Claims
On October 8, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory and said El Niño was strengthening.
Niño-3.4 reached +2.1°C, Niño-3 +3.0°C, and Niño-1+2 +3.9°C. Sea-surface anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific.
Subsurface temperatures remained in excess of +10.0°C at depth in the eastern Pacific.
A strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January–March 2027, with the chance remaining above 83 percent.
The chance of a three-month RONI of +2.5°C or more, which would exceed events back to 1950, is 83 percent for October–December. The September–November chance is 54 percent and the November–January chance is 70 percent.
An event of this magnitude raises the chance of impacts consistent with El Niño. Those impacts are not guaranteed.
The next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for November 12, 2026.